The far right is expected to win Italy's next election, marking the city's biggest political shift in decades.

On Sunday, voters in Italy will go to the polls for a snap general election that is expected to result in a government led by a far-right party. This would be a tremendous political upheaval for a country that is already dealing with economic and political turmoil.

Prior to September 9 (the start of the blackout period), opinion polls predicted that a right-wing alliance would win a majority of seats in parliament's shrunken lower and upper houses.

Giorgia Meloni's far-right Fratelli d'Italia leads the alliance (Brothers of Italy). There are three more right-wing parties in the alliance: Matteo Salvini's Lega, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, and a lesser coalition member, Noi Moderati.

The Brothers of Italy party stands out and is expected to earn the most votes for a single party. According to poll aggregator Politiche 2022, it has received nearly 25% of the vote, much surpassing its closest right-wing ally, Lega, which is expected to receive about 12%.

The Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Enrico Letta, is expected to receive roughly 21% of the vote on the center-left. In comparison, its coalition allies (the Green and Left Alliance, More Europe, and Civic Commitment) are expected to garner single-digit support.

In July, Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned after failing to rally a fragmented political coalition behind his economic proposals. As a result, the election was held quickly.

What exactly is the "Brotherhood of Italy"?

Giorgia Meloni, the head of Fratelli d'Italia, could become Italy's first female prime minister if her party wins the election. She would also be Italy's first far-right leader since Benito Mussolini a century ago.

Carlo Ciccioli, the president of Fratelli d'Italia in the eastern Italian province of Le Marche, told CNBC that the party's astronomical popularity had "spread to the rest of Italy" and that it was now ready to reign.

"At this point, we are likely to be the country's largest party; nevertheless, this will not be established until Sunday's election, and not by any polls." Why do I think Fratelli d'Italia will succeed? Because our leadership is solid. Jouma Bercetche described Giorgia Meloni as "culturally and politically astute."

Fratelli d'Italia was founded in 2012, but it has its roots in Italy's 20th-century neo-fascist movement, which arose following the death of fascist leader Mussolini in 1945.

A group of Berlusconi's People of Freedom (or PdL) party, including Giorgia Meloni, created Fratelli d'Italia. It gets its name from the first verses of the Italian national anthem.

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Since then, the party's popularity has grown and it has eclipsed the populist Lega. It has struck a chord with elements of the public concerned about immigration (Italy is a popular destination for migrant boats crossing the Mediterranean), Italy's relationship with the EU, and the economy.

Analysts believe the party's refusal to join Draghi's previous broad-based alliance helped to its popularity.

According to Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of a risk consultancy, Meloni was identified "as an outsider within the political system and as the lone opposition person."

Origins and methods

In terms of its policies, which resemble Italy's fascist era's nationalist, nativist, and anti-immigrant stance, Fratelli d'Italia has been labeled "neo-fascist" or "post-fascist."

Meloni, for one, claimed to have rid the party of fascists, claiming in the summer that Italy's right-wing has "relegated fascism to the trash of history for decades."

To put it mildly, the party's principles are socially conservative, since it opposes homosexual marriage and favors traditional "family values"; Meloni claimed in 2019 that she wishes to maintain "God, country, and family."

Fratelli d'Italia has changed its stance on the euro in Europe, but still supports EU reform to make it less bureaucratic and less influential in domestic politics. One of its slogans sums up its strategy: "A Europe that does less but better."

On the economic front, it has agreed to the position of the center-right coalition that the next administration should lower sales taxes on some commodities to help with the cost of living crisis, and it has declared that Italy should renegotiate its Covid recovery funds with the EU.

In contrast to the Lega, Fratelli d'Italia has been pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine, and has backed sanctions on Russia.

However, the party has also been friendly with one of the EU's most notable opponents, Hungary's President Viktor Orban, supporting the dictatorial leader after a European Parliament vote found that Hungary was no longer a democracy.

Politicians on the center-left are fearful that a Meloni-led government will sever connections with the rest of Europe. Enrico Letta, the Democratic Party's leader, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick that Italy has two options in Europe: stay in the top tier of economies and governance, or be "relegated."

The first option is to keep our place in the "first division." The first division includes Brussels as well as Germany, France, and Spain, the big European states and founders such as ourselves.

The second option is to be downgraded to the second division alongside Poland and Hungary, fighting alongside them against Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Madrid,' he said in early September at the Ambrosetti economic event.

"I feel it would be bad for Italy to choose the second division," he said.

Several experts have labeled Meloni a political chameleon, citing her shifting political opinions over time.

"There is... some doubt as to whether Meloni would lead the government: the one who praised Hungary's Viktor Orban or the one who supported Mario Draghi's anti-Russia stance?" Teneo's Wolfango Piccoli wrote in a September note.

"Which came first: the sovereigntist who called for Italy's exit from the euro or the reassuring leader who had a more traditional position toward Europe during the election campaign?"

"Which came first: the populist who demanded for a military blockade of the Mediterranean to stop the illegal influx of immigrants... or the more responsible conservative leader who advocated for a European solution?" he said.

Given that Italy has historically had 69 administrations since World War II, considerable instability and volatility are expected in the aftermath of the election, not least because conflicts among the right-wing alliance's FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia are likely to arise.

"Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi will be tough coalition partners, aiming to reestablish themselves after a (potential) electoral defeat by emphasizing policy differences such as fiscal austerity, pensions, and Russia sanctions."

Policy disputes and personal rivalries will emerge soon after the election, causing chaos and undermining the new leadership's effectiveness," Piccoli predicted.